11/1/04
It's pretty pointless to try and guess how these states will vote, being as close as the race is. But one state I am changing my
mind on is Wisconsin. Kerry still has a slim lead but overall trending shows Bush is closing the gap, and the GOP must think they
have a legitimate shot of winning, given how much time the President has spent in the Badger state and Midwest this week.
So I am switching my predication on this state, which now puts Bush up past the 270 barrier, at 273.
If this all holds, then Hawaii - HAWAII!!!! - could end up being the state that decides this election.
Florida is still anyone's guess, but I am leaving it for Kerry at this point because I see no reason to move it to Bush.
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota are the President's next best hopes of pulling electors from Kerry,
but all three have solidified a little more for Kerry in the past day or so.
So, in my estimation, the states to now watch are Florida, Wisconsin, and Hawaii. If Bush can pick up Florida, or the Wisconsin/Hawaii 7-10 split (or is that a 4-10 split?), he should win. Otherwise, it's President-elect Kerry. In either case…. it's still way too early and way too close to call.
10/30/04
I keep getting asked what my predictions for the Presidential election are, so I settled down Saturday and reviewed some the news and polling I consider reliable. Three things to keep in mind: I am basing my thoughts on the polling web sites listed on the main web page (Electoral-Vote, RCP, Slate, Zogby), so I am not doing any of my own statistical analysis; I am weighting trends as much as I am current polling results; and the data I am looking at has not factored in the Bin Laden tape released on Friday.
So, here we go. As I see it, my honest opinion (this link will display my breakdown of how I see the votes going to each candidate; states in yellow are what I consider "in play", some more than others).
The slightly-bad news for Bush: As things stand now, GW is about 7-10 electoral votes shy of a win, given all the states he is likely to win. The good news is, realizing a bunch of states are still tossups and assuming he can win his weakest states of Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa where he now leads, he probably needs to win just one of the following "big 5" states to beat Kerry: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota or Wisconsin. Florida is his best shot; in fact more polls show Bush winning Florida than Kerry at this point, but trending data at this point looks to give Kerry a slight lead, so just like 2000, it's a tossup. Michigan is winnable for Bush, but leans slightly to Kerry. The other 3 are still up for grabs but favor Kerry at this point.
If Bush loses Ohio or Iowa, which is certainly possible, he has some problems, but can still win by taking Florida and one of the other "big-5" states listed above.
Hawaii is another state to watch if things are truly as tight as they appear - those three electoral votes could be huge late in the night/early next morning, and it will be close. Hawaii typically votes Democrat, but they also vote for the incumbent regardless of party. Oregon is not entirely out of the question for Bush, given recent polling and high numbers already received for the mail-in ballots; and if the governor race in Washington generates the high turnout expected (over 80% in King County alone), there's a small chance the Northwest could become a late night factor as well, though not likely. Alaska and Idaho are locks for Bush at this point, and are out of play.
Bottom line: watch Florida and Michigan - if Bush wins one of those states, it's probably a win for him. And watch Ohio, Colorado and Iowa; if Kerry wins any of those, it could cause big problems for the President. And based on the threats of lawsuits and potential voter fraud in several states, don't expect to go to bed Tuesday night knowing who has won... or Wednesday night.... or Thursday night... or maybe for the entire month of November.
And keep hitting the "refresh" button at http://www.orbusmax.com.
ORB
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